As California grapples with the aftermath of catastrophic wildfires and the looming hurricane season, President Donald Trump and the White House DOGE team are implementing significant workforce reductions at the federal agency tasked with monitoring severe weather. Business Insider interviewed numerous current and former employees of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who expressed concerns that staff and policy changes are complicating their daily responsibilities. They feared the repercussions on public safety, particularly as hurricane and tornado seasons quickly approach.
Andrew Hazelton, a former NOAA hurricane modeler who was let go in February along with other probationary staff, stated starkly that if weather forecasts and hurricane warnings decline, it could lead to “loss of life as a result.”
NOAA’s influence stretches across the United States and globally. In addition to its focus on extreme weather conditions, NOAA generates the data that supports the weather applications on smartphones, helps pilots navigate turbulence, and guides farmers on planting schedules to sustain American agriculture. “It really, truly affects every single American every day,” remarked a former probationary worker who chose to remain anonymous.
Prior to Trump’s inauguration in January, NOAA had a workforce of approximately 12,430, as per a congressional report. Since then, over 1,000 employees have left due to layoffs or buyouts, according to JoAnn Becker, the president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, a union representing NOAA employees. Reports indicate that more than 600 employees were terminated in February, while around 500 accepted the buyout offer from the administration.
With a clouded future for probationary staff, voluntary early retirements, and buyouts, along with Trump’s ongoing government-wide workforce reduction initiatives, NOAA’s staff count may further decline. “We would like to just go on and do our jobs and save people’s lives,” a National Weather Service employee voiced.
In addition to the staffing reductions, several employees noted that stricter travel and expense regulations have hindered their ability to carry out essential tasks aimed at safeguarding the public from natural disasters. Internal documents shared with BI indicate that renewal deadlines for contracts deemed “urgent” are imminent.
A Trump administration spokesperson assured BI that an “extensive process was conducted to ensure that mission-critical functions to fulfill NOAA’s statutory responsibilities weren’t compromised.” However, the spokesperson refrained from sharing additional details regarding the process.
Susan Buchanan, a NOAA spokesperson, affirmed that the agency remains committed to its mission. A spokesperson for the Department of Commerce, which oversees NOAA, did not respond to BI’s request for comment.
Amid dwindling resources and staffing, those remaining at NOAA must persist in their duties. “We are catching a lot of balls, with very few people,” an employee noted. “Eventually one of them is probably going to fall.”
Concerns for Aviation
Several individuals who spoke with BI expressed apprehension about how the staffing cuts and operational changes at NOAA could impact the aviation sector. Despite air travel being recognized as the safest form of transportation, a National Weather Service employee with over a decade of experience indicated that if the agency’s turmoil persists, “I don’t know if I’d trust getting on a plane.”
NOAA plays a crucial role in operating aviation-specific weather models for pilots, which aid in tracking turbulence and other critical data. Brad Colman, the former president of the American Meteorological Society, pointed out that “if systems are degraded, a turbulence forecast may go down in quality, and uncertainty is increased.” This escalation leads to heightened exposure and risk.
The Airline Dispatchers Federation emphasized in an email to BI that NOAA supplies dispatchers with “essential tools,” including forecasts for turbulence, wind, and weather events. “Virtually all” weather data utilized for domestic flights originates from NOAA, which is considered “fundamental” to daily operations. While the organization has not yet observed operational setbacks, they cautioned that “even subtle degradations could affect our operations.” The Federal Aviation Administration did not respond to requests for comments.
Moreover, meteorologists employed by airlines derive foundational data from NOAA to formulate their forecasts. The spokesperson pointed out that smaller airlines may face greater difficulties if NOAA’s data quality declines, potentially resulting in safety disparities across the industry. Tom Di Liberto, a former public affairs official and climate scientist who was let go in February, articulated, “There’s a reason why a lot of weather forecast offices are close by or at a major airport.”
Declined Forecast Reliability
The employees impacted by the layoffs weren’t solely based at NOAA’s Maryland headquarters; many worked in regional offices nationwide. For instance, one office in Alaska halted daily weather balloon launches, which are critical for data collection, according to Larry Hubble, an upper air program manager in that state. On March 20, the National Weather Service temporarily ceased weather balloon launches at offices in Nebraska and South Dakota, while several other locations reduced their launches to once daily from twice due to staffing shortages.
Other data-collecting instruments, like radars on commercial aircraft and satellites, are also in use. The long-serving NWS employee noted that weather balloons represent one of the most reliable measurement techniques, and if they are diminished, “we’re going to start seeing the degradation of the models, and the forecast will lose its accuracy.”
“If you degrade our capabilities, our warnings get weaker, and people and property are put at risk,” remarked a NOAA employee to BI. “Damages are going to increase; people aren’t going to evacuate in time, and lives could be lost.”
The Government Accountability Office reported in March that staffing shortages and aircraft maintenance issues had already hindered hurricane hunters from executing their duties, well before DOGE began impacting operations.
Private Sector Dependencies
The ongoing changes at NOAA are expected to resonate through the private sector, influencing various industries. For instance, the reinsurance industry relies on NOAA data to evaluate damages from natural disasters and allocate funds. Construction professionals depend on NOAA data to determine where new projects should be established.
The economic ramifications are extensive, as NOAA’s products affect over a third of the national GDP, according to the agency’s own estimates. “If you eliminate NOAA, the private sector cannot function in the way it currently does,” Di Liberto stated. NOAA manages thousands of weather balloons, hundreds of buoys, ten aircraft, and eighteen satellites, providing accessible data to the public rather than limiting it to paying customers.
A representative from the Airline Dispatchers Federation observed that while private weather companies offer valuable supplementary services, they ultimately depend on NOAA’s raw data. “There is simply no substitute for NOAA’s comprehensive data collection infrastructure,” the spokesperson concluded.
